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Box Office Wizard (5.14.10)

By: | Movie Features | May 13, 2010
One of the goals we have at Player Affinity is to create an open dialog with our readers. I don't know how many of you there are yet, probably not much, but it's never too early to start asking for your thoughts and opinions.

One way we thought to do this was through a weekly competition. We want you to get out your box office crystal balls and tells us which five movies will place in the top five of each weekend's U.S. domestic box office chart. Simple enough, right? I will make my own predictions here and explain them to you each week to give you some sort of reference point. It's then your job to enter a comment with your top five. 

This is Week #3. The first week you predict is the first week you enter the Box Office Wizard competition. For every correct prediction each week, you earn a point. Points are cumulative. The game keeps going on and on forever and ever except we will reset everyone back to zero -- let's say -- once a year. Each week there will be at least two winners: a weekend wizard for the users who guessed the most correct and a box office wizard for the user with the most points to date. The goal is to be Box Office Wizard for as long as you can. I'll pick an end date for the year at some point and then whoever has the most becomes the year's box office wizard. Maybe by the team that happens, Player Affinity will be so wildly popular that we'll have some cool free stuff to give the Box Office Wizard of the Year. Regardless, it's worth giving a try. What do you have to lose?

Week #2 Wizard(s): Steven C (me), SimonSays, Olly Hume - 5 pts each
Current Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 7 Pts 

Currently, Steven C is the Box Office Wizard with 7 Pts. I mentioned this would be an easy week to nail the top five and I followed suit. Many of you took my advice and by many of you I mean PAM writer Simon and PATV writer Olly. 

ALL-TIME TOTALS
Steven C - 7
Olly H - 5
SimonSays - 5
TheGamerGeek - 4

Remember, only submissions in the comment section count and they must be made by 12:01 AM SATURDAY. Check our weekly recap posting late afternoon every Monday for the box office figures of the weekend. Remember, we count the WEEKEND ACTUALS, not the ESTIMATES announced on Sundays.

Here are last week's top five finishers and this week's new contenders followed by my predictions.

Last Week's Top Five
  1. Iron Man 2 - $128.1 M (weekend) … $128.1 M (gross)
  2. A Nightmare on Elm Street - $9.1 M … $48.4
  3. How to Train Your Dragon - $6.6 M … $201.0 M
  4. Date Night - 5.4 M … $81.0 M
  5. The Back-Up Plan - $5.0 M … $30.1
New Contenders this Weekend

Robin Hood
Directed by Ridley Scott
Written by Brian Helgeland, Ethan Reiff, Cyrus Voris
Starring: Russell Crowe, Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong
Genre: Historical Action/Adventure
Distributor: Universal
Release: 3,503 theaters 



Letters to Juliet
Directed by Gary Winick
Written by Jose Rivera, Tim Sullivan
Starring: Amanda Seyfried, Vanessa Redgrave, Christopher Egan
Genre: Romance
Distributor: Summitt Entertainment
Release: 2,968 theaters 



Just Wright
Directed by Sanaa Hamri
Written by Michael Elliot
Starring: Queen Latifah, Common, Paula Patton
Genre: Romantic Comedy
Distributor: Fox Searchlight
Release: 1,831 theaters 




My Top Five Predictions

It would take an incredible feat for any of these new films to beat Iron Man 2 coming off of a $120 million-plus weekend. Based on reviews and how quickly most of these huge first-weekend grossers drop-off in their second week, I'm going to go with $65 million for Tony Stark's second big weekend.

With all the runner-ups last week taking in fewer than $10 million, it should be easy for virtually every newcomer to sneak in here beneath our No. 1. Robin Hood should have the easiest time generating good cash with a timeless character, Ridley Scott's track record and a PG-13 rating. I think it could reach about $25 million. Letters to Juliet should easily be third after what Amanda Seyfried did with Dear John in February and a lack of appealing romance movies in theaters lately. I'll say $18-20 million.

There's no doubt when you compare these next two films as to which is better, but Just Wright needs so little to beat How to Train Your Dragon that I just can't see it making less than the 'ole vet. No family films are offering competition this week, but I think the rom com can manage $5-6 million and beat it out (as well as Nightmare on Elm Street), but it will be close

  1. Iron Man 2
  2. Robin Hood
  3. Letters to Juliet
  4. Just Wright
  5. How to Train Your Dragon 

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Steven Chaitman

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