Box Office Wizard (4.1.11)

Welcome to Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction competition that you ignore every week because you don't hath the stones of a real wizard. Entering is and always has been simple, so why not get your beard on and give it a try? Just read through this post and leave a comment with, in order, what you think the top five box office finishers will be this weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS??? In your comments, leave your official wizard name. Be creative. See some example names in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

Below you’ll find another recap of the rules, last week’s Top Five, current BOW Standings, a list of new movies getting wide releases this weekend and some details and then finally an explanation of my Top Five predictions to give you a starting point.

This is Week 12. 

How it Works: For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “The Fastest and Furiousest” to rank first in the box office that weekend and it comes in first), you earn a point. Only if a movie is in its correct place can you earn a point. (You could have all top five movies out of order and get a fat 0, it happens.) Points are cumulative. We will also keep track of the percentage you have correct.

So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

• Only submissions in the comment section count.
•  Predictions must be in by Noon (the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up.
• Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources     publish Sunday afternoons.
• On holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
• Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely)

Last Week's Top Five 

1.  Diary of  a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules - $23.7M (weekend)…$23.7M (gross)
2.  Sucker Punch - $19.0M…$19.0M
3.  Limitless - $15.2M…$41.2M
4.  The Lincoln Lawyer - $11.0M…$28.9M 
5.  Rango - $9.8M…$106.3M

WIZARD LEADERBOARD (Cumulative Pts)

I messed my cumulative score up, but have fixed it.

Cinemus the Predictor - 35 (30/55 - 54%)
Herpious Derpious - 31 (26/55 - 47%)
Simonius Saysian - 28 (23/50 - 46%)
Kieran - 21 (21/55 - 38%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 15 (10/30 - 30%)
Julian - 6 (6/10 - 60%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)
Dustin C - 0 (0/5) - 0%)


BOX OFFICE WIZARD HALL OF FAME

2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

 
****Also, the PG-13 version of The King's Speech will be released in just over 1,000 theaters.

 

My Box Office Predictions

I didn’t debate too much with the box office this weekend despite three new films. I think with spring break that the box office will get a bit of a spring in its step working in tandem with some nice reviews for two of our newcomers.

Hop should easily (albeit sadly) earn enough for the top spot. Its April release, Easter exclusivity and the whole not being based on an existing property thing will keep it from going anywhere near the $44 million opening of Alvin and the Chipmunks, but I’m thinking between $20-30 million. If the marketing has won over families then I’ll say higher end, but James Marsden and Kaley Cuoco won’t exactly excite adults to go see this picture. Then again, the Chipmunks only had Jason Lee.

The other new films benefit from strong reviews yet will be weakened by smaller distributors. Summit releases Source Code, which is winning nearly all critics over, but other than the “Twilight” series, Summit’s films do a more casual box-office business. I see the film being very similar to Limitless in its appeal, so I think the upper end of $15-20 million is likely.

FilmDistrict, even more obscure than Summit, distributes Insidious, but horror fans have been deprived. To hear the buzz for this film will drive many to theaters and in my opinion, earn the film about $15 million. FilmDistrict and an unusual release date for a horror film are the only things holding this one back for me. It could finish closer to $10 million if those factors win out.

I have Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules in fourth. Any movie that caters to a fan base usually gets its opening total split in half, so $11 million sounds right. That leaves a battle between Sucker Punch and Limitless. The former is fending off bad reviews and the latter will half to fend off Source Code. I give the edge to Limitless with $9-10 million.

1. Hop
2. Source Code
3. Insidious
4. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
5. Limitless