Box Office Wizard (3.25.11)

Welcome to the NEW Box Office Wizard, Player Affinity’s premiere movie box office prediction competition and your chance every week to feel like a flippin’ genius – nay – wizard. Entering is and always has been simple. You read through this post and leave a comment with, in order, what you think the top five box office finishers will be that weekend. Finish out 2011 on top and you will win something COOL.

WANT FIVE BONUS POINTS??? In your comments, leave your official wizard name. Be creative. See some example names in our Wizarding Leaderboard.

Below you’ll find another recap of the rules, last week’s Top Five, current BOW Standings, a list of new movies getting wide releases this weekend and some details and then finally an explanation of my Top Five predictions to give you a starting point.

This is Week 11. 

How it Works: For every movie you correctly place in the box office top five (say you pick “The Land Before Time XXVI,” to rank second in the box office that weekend and it comes in second), you earn a point. Only if a movie is in its correct place can you earn a point. (You could have all top five movies out of order and get a fat 0, it happens.) Points are cumulative. We will also keep track of the percentage you have correct.

So, let’s say you’ve played for four weeks and missed only four movies. You then have 16 Cumulative Points out of 20 and a prediction percentage of 75%. Not too shabby. Someone else could have 64 CP out of 110 and be ahead of you in CP, but behind you (58%) in percentage. You must, however, have played 8 weeks to be eligible for the Percentage crown. When the year is up, whoever has the most cumulative points and whoever the highest percentage (could be the same person) wins the title of Box Office Wizard 2011.

Official Scoring/The Fine Print:

• Only submissions in the comment section count.
•  Predictions must be in by Noon (the time zone you’re in) the Saturday after the weekly post goes up.
• Only the Weekend Actuals (released Monday afternoons) count as the official totals, not the estimates that most news sources     publish Sunday afternoons.
• On holiday weekends that start early or end late, only the three-day Friday through Sunday totals count.
• Look for Dinah Galley’s box office recap on Mondays for the weekend’s results (not always the actuals, so look closely)

Last Week's Top Five 

1.  Limitless - $19.0M (weekend)…$19.0M (gross)
2.  Rango - $15.3M…$692.5M
3.  Battle: Los Angeles - $14.6M…$60.6M
4.  The Lincoln Lawyer - $13.4M…$13.4M 
5.  Paul - $13.1M…$13.1M

WIZARD LEADERBOARD (Cumulative Pts)

I don't have time to check them out, but there are some errors here ... I should have either 27/50 or 34 pts because the cumulative number for anyone with a wizard name should be 5 pts higher than the first fraction number thanks to bonus pts. 

Cinemus the Predictor - 32 (29/50 - 58%)
Herpious Derpious - 28 (23/50 - 46%)
Simonius Saysian - 25 (20/45 - 44%)
Kieran - 20 (20/50 - 40%)
Lord Jamven Serpenthelm - 15 (10/30 - 30%)
Julian - 6 (6/10 - 60%)
Max A - 5 (5/10 - 50%)


BOX OFFICE WIZARD HALL OF FAME

2010 Box Office Wizard: SimonSays - 97 pts in 34 weeks
2010 Box Office Wizard: Steven C - 97 pts in 34 weeks

New Contenders this Weekend

My Box Office Predictions

Some of you probably look at the spectacle that is Sucker Punch and given the notoriety of Zack Snyder's name, you would think 300 or Watchmen-like numbers are possible. I won't rule it out, but a completely original story without any huge star draws doesn't spell success. Having been beat before at this game with Kick-Ass and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, I have to pick Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules to win the box office this weekend. With some parents complaining about the amount of "smoking" in Rango, you can bet several are waiting for this moving to come out. The original did $22 million a year ago, so it's easy to see $20-25 million here.

Some predictions for Sucker Punch are really low, but I feel $20 million is within reach even if it falls a bit short. We've seen films like Drive Angry 3D absolutely tank while trying to appeal to this audience, but Snyder's rep should help get the film make at least $15 million. Either way, there's no contest for second place here.

In third, I expect strong return business for Limitless. Word of mouth has gotten stronger over the week for this film in my experience and without any real competition, $10 million is easily within reach. Rango should come in just below it, sure to take a bit of a hit with "Wimpy Kid" out.

In fifth, I like The Lincoln Lawyer. Dramas don't usually drop down as much in their second weeks if they've gotten positive reviews. I think it beats out Battle: Los Angeles with about $8-9 million.

1. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
2. Sucker Punch
3. Limitless
4. Rango
5. The Lincoln Lawyer